Welcome to THW’s 2022-23 Vezina Trophy tracker, which hopes to rank the NHL’s leading goaltenders using a blend of traditional and more modern analytical tools on a monthly basis for the duration of the regular season.
Briefly, goals saved above expected (GSAx) is a new statistic used to evaluate goaltenders and helps account for the difference in their quality of workload. All shots are not created equal – think of a shot from the point compared to a shot from the slot – and GSAx uses expected goals to gauge how well a goalie is performing relative to the cumulative quality of shots they may face. Although public expected goals models are limited, they represent a significant leap forward from simply relying on more flawed metrics such as raw save percentage (SV%) or goals-against average (GAA).
Before we set out to the rankings, some parameters for inclusion on this list should be established. A goalie’s workload is an important factor to consider when attempting to crown the best goaltender of any given season. Consequently, netminders must play in over half of their team’s games to merit consideration for these rankings. With those guidelines in place, let’s dive into the five goaltenders (and five additional honourable mentions) who will kick off the first Vezina Trophy rankings of the 2022-23 NHL season.
5. Linus Ullmark, Boston Bruins
2022-23 Stats: 15 GP – .935 SV% – 1.96 GAA – 8.12 GSAx
The league-leading Boston Bruins have been outstanding on every front this season – enacting even-strength dominance, converting at will on the powerplay, and have received elite goaltending from 29-year-old Linus Ullmark. Considering the veteran Swedish netminder split the workload with rookie sensation Jeremy Swayman, seeing him emphatically wrest away the starting role in 2022-23 can be categorized as a surprise, even if Swayman has had injury troubles.
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Ullmark posted a solid, but unspectacular debut campaign with the Bruins after signing with the team as a free agent during the 2021 offseason. He submitted a .917 SV% (eighth among goalies to have played in at least 10 games last season) but allowed over two goals more than expected, sitting outside the top 50 in this regard. As the team committed to Ullmark for four years at $5 million a season, getting below-average goaltending represented a subpar return on their…
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