March 18, 2023
Who’s In, Who’s Out, Who’s Sweating?
by Adam Wodon/Managing Editor (@CHN_AdamWodon)
One night of games to go before we can project a bracket for this year’s NCAA Tournament.
As usual, check out our You Are the Committee tool to manually enter scenarios and see how things would shake out. Also, follow us on Twitter for updates and chatter on different scenarios throughout the day.
Here’s what we know going into the six conference tournament championship games:
A few teams need to win their conference tournament championship to get in. That includes, of course, both Atlantic Hockey teams. It’s also the case, however, for both CCHA Tournament teams — Minnesota State and Northern Michigan. See more on MSU below. Colgate in the ECAC, and Colorado College in the NCHC are the other two teams that can win autobids and take away slots from bubble teams. Both Big Ten participants are in already. In Hockey East, BU is in, while Merrimack could still get in with a loss.
Western Michigan — Once and for all sealed its bid thanks to Cornell’s loss in overtime Friday.
Merrimack — Will play for the Hockey East championship against Boston University. Obviously, win and it’s in. If the Warriors lose, they will drop below Cornell slightly, which means they could afford only one bid-stealing team to win in the other conferences.
Cornell — See: Merrimack. Cornell needs one of CC, Colgate or Merrimack to lose and it’s in.
Minnesota State — The Mavericks no longer have a path with a loss. They will drop below Alaska by losing to NMU, which means 15th place. NMU would take the 15th slot.
Alaska — Needs CC and Colgate to both lose. If Merrimack loses, it remains ahead of Alaska, so that game doesn’t matter. In this scenario, Alaska would either be 14 or 15 overall, depending on whether Minnesota State wins.
As for seeding, there are basically five known slots …
Minnesota and Quinnipiac will be 1-2. Minnesota in Fargo. Quinnipiac in Bridgeport.
Penn State and Ohio State will be 8-9. Not only can’t those teams play each other in the first round, but the 8-1 pairing won’t work either, since Minnesota will be in Fargo and Penn State must host in Allentown. So most likely you’ll see a 7-9 matchup in Fargo, with Ohio State going there.
The 16th slot will go to the Atlantic Hockey champion — Canisius or Holy Cross. Whoever wins will play Minnesota in Fargo.
If Colgate wins and…
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