The NHL and NHLPA have released updated salary cap estimates for the next three seasons, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports Friday. After initially being estimated to rise from the current $88MM ceiling to $92MM for the 2025-26 campaign, it’ll jump to a $95.5MM upper limit next season. Upper limit estimates for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons have been set at $104MM and $113.5MM, respectively. However, Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reports that the memo sent to teams by the league today is indicative of a set agreement on figures for the next three years, not an estimate of projection, although they are still subject to “potential minor adjustments (up or down).”
In addition to this summer’s major jump, these numbers indicate a steady escalation in year-over-year increases in the cap ceiling. There will be a $7.5MM difference in upper limits between the 2024-25 and 2025-26 campaigns, an $8.5MM difference between 2025-26 and 2026-27, and $9.5MM between 2026-27 and 2027-28. That’s around a 9% jump per year on average, up significantly from the roughly 5% jump we’re used to in recent seasons outside of the COVID-related cap freeze.
Increases in cap ceilings also mean big jumps in the minimum a team can spend while still being compliant. The cap floor will rise from $65MM this season to $70.6MM in 2025-26, $76.9MM in 2026-27, and $83.9MM in 2027-28. The lower limit is tied directly to the upper limit – the floor is always set at 85% of the midpoint, with the ceiling always equaling 115% of the midpoint.
The league minimum salary, currently set at $775K, is independent of the salary cap and will need to be set during CBA negotiations, which are set to begin next month. It will remain at $775K for next season, the last under the current CBA.
As agents continue to negotiate new deals for their players based on cap hit percentage at the time of signing instead of actual dollar value, both elite and mid-range free agents in the coming seasons stand to benefit massively. A $5MM cap hit today is 5.68% of the $88MM upper limit, which will be equivalent to $5.4MM, $5.9MM, and $6.4MM over the coming three years. For higher-priced talents, a $10MM AAV deal today will work out to $10.9MM in 2025-26, $11.8MM in 2026-27, and $12.9MM in 2027-28.
The early confirmation and unprecedented move to issue official cap numbers multiple years in advance means more negotiating power for top UFAs-to-be, whether that’s Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen on this…
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