sports betting how goaltending factors in NHL odds pucklines

Among the many factors in the Winnipeg Jets’ blazing hot 15-3-0 start, high on the list is the presence of reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, who is once again proving to be one of the league’s finest goaltenders.

But even elite goalies can’t play every game, so headed into last Thursday’s matchup in Tampa Bay, the Jets announced that backup Eric Comrie would get the nod. Almost immediately, Caesars Sportsbook saw bets come in on the Lightning, forcing it to move the Bolts from an opening pick ’em to a closing -145 favorite. Winnipeg went on to lose 4-1, its second loss of the year and the first on Comrie’s record (3-1-0).

Goalies are the only players in hockey expected to play all the minutes in a game — even high-minute skaters play between only a third and half of a game — so it’s fair to wonder how the presence or absence of certain keepers might affect a given betting line. The reality is that linemakers take a more holistic approach to making NHL lines and put stock into only drastic goalie changes.

“Like anything else, it matters, but you’ve got to add context to it and sometimes it matters more than others,” Caesars head of hockey Karry Shreeve told ESPN. “Most of the time I’d say that a goalie, at most, is worth 3 to 5% [of implied probability]. So if it’s -120 [54.55%], maybe it goes to -150 [60%], -150 to -200 [66.7%]. But it’s all in context. It’s all team-specific, it’s situation-specific.”

Shreeve added that the Jets’ situation — an elite true No. 1 starter earning the majority of the ice time with a significant drop-off to the backup — is an outlier in today’s NHL. Many teams operate with true tandems, such as the one popularized by the Boston Bruins with Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark before the latter was shipped off to the Ottawa Senators. Shreeve cited the Vegas Golden Knights, Seattle Kraken and Washington Capitals as teams where you would see little drop-off in perceived betting value based on the starting goalie.

Regardless, the starting goalie is not the bedrock of NHL line-making, but rather a piece to adjust situation-to-situation.

“The team has a No. 1 goalie and he’s built into the price every night,” DraftKings director of sportsbook Johnny Avello told ESPN. “If it changes from that, then we have to change the price, change our rating on that team. NHL is not like Major League Baseball where the pitcher makes all the difference, the pitcher is where the price comes…