Impact Youngsters, Record-Breaking Contract, Fowler, Goalies, Struggling Contender, Minors

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion about a Cam Fowler trade scenario, plenty of goalie talk, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

wreckage: Do you expect Michkov or Bedard to be more impactful going forward? Bedard may have more skill, slightly. Michkov likely has a deeper team behind him at the moment. For the next three years… who has more impact in the NHL?

I’ll go with Connor Bedard for this one.  Yes, Chicago has a weaker team on paper right now but Philadelphia is still rebuilding as well, despite them nearly making the playoffs last season.  Both teams are probably on the outside looking in for at least the first two of those three years.  The good news is that Matvei Michkov should get a lot of runway to play big minutes quickly like Bedard did last season but there’s only so much impact he can have on a non-playoff team.

Generally speaking, I’m going to lean toward a high-end center having more of an impact than a high-end winger on a year-to-year basis.  Bedard will be a year further ahead in his development, entering what should be a very pricey second contract at a time when Chicago should be starting to take some steps forward in the Central.  He’s going to be a big part of that.  Not to say Michkov shouldn’t be an impactful piece by any stretch but I expect most players won’t be quite as impactful as Bedard should be in a few years.

riverrat55: Who is the 1st player with the upcoming increase in the Salary Cap to ask for $20MM?

Before tackling this, we need to figure out our target cap percentage that will cost $20MM.  Teams, players and agents use this percentage as a direct comparable in negotiations.  (For anyone wondering, 20% is the maximum, a rate we haven’t seen reached in quite some time.  I remember some when the first cap came out but that’s about it.)  Auston Matthews’ contract is 15.06% of the cap while Leon Draisaitl’s recent one checks in at 15.91%.  Connor McDavid’s current one is 15.72% and I could see it eclipsing the 16% mark (which, on a $92MM-plus cap, puts the AAV in the $15MM range).  For the sake of this hypothetical, let’s put a target cap percentage at 16.5%.

Let’s do some quick math here.  $20MM divided by 16.5% = $121.212MM.  Why does this matter?  We need to project when the Upper Limit of the salary cap might get to this amount to see who will need a contract at this time.

This…