One of my favorite categories to track in fantasy is shot volume. It’s easy to track, easy to understand and has a direct correlation to goals, of course.
A player with a high shot volume tends to score more goals. Even if he’s suffering from a poor shooting percentage, the high shot volume can still be incredibly valuable. A high shot volume also infers an offensively-minded player who gets enough leeway and ice time from his coach, which is a boon to their fantasy value.
Viktor Arvidsson fits that bill. Despite missing 42 games in his final three seasons with the Predators, and nearly all of 2023-24 — he was the Kings’ Masterton Trophy nominee — Arvidsson ranks 51st in shots (1,480) since his breakout, 31-goal season in 2016-17. Among players who’ve scored at least 100 goals during that span, Arvidsson ranks 27th with 3.06 shots per game, just slightly below Sidney Crosby (3.06) and ahead of even Steven Stamkos (2.95) and Mikko Rantanen (2.89).
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According to naturalstattrick.com, over the past three seasons, Arvidsson ranks 52nd with 3.01 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, tied with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. In first spot is Connor McDavid (obviously) but in third place is Zach Hyman.
Even in the Kings’ more defensive, structured game, Arvidsson managed eclipse 20 goals and 200 shots; on the Oilers, he’ll surely be able to at least match those numbers, even if he doesn’t get to play with McDavid.
For a second-line winger, Arvidsson shoots the puck a ton and he’s generally very reliable. With Hyman going from 26 goals in his first season with the Oilers to 54 goals last season, naturally, it’s intriguing to think what Arvidsson can do. A change of scenery could really push his production to career highs.
The Oilers’ projected 2024-25 forward lines:
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman
Jeff Skinner – Leon Draisaitl – Viktor Arvidsson
Mattias Janmark – Adam Henrique – Connor Brown
Vasily Podkolzin – Derek Ryan – Corey Perry
LTIR: Evander Kane
Offer sheet: Dylan Holloway
Let’s forget about the Oilers’ bottom six because it’s not particularly strong and there’s little offensive upside. Henrique, Brown and Janmark may be a serviceable checking line, but all three project to finish with less than 40 points each.
There are certainly a lot of moving parts, especially when the Oilers go nuclear and stack McDavid and Draisaitl together. But, at even strength, both Skinner and Arvidsson possess plenty of…