Lightning Could Benefit From Underdog Status Versus Maple Leafs

Is anyone outside of Central Florida picking the Tampa Bay Lightning to defeat the Toronto Maple Leafs in the much-anticipated first-round rematch to begin the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs? It doesn’t appear that many people are giving them a chance to win the series. According to professional hockey analysts, the media and fans, Tampa will be lucky to avoid a sweep.

Although this seems a little unfair to the Lightning, who has represented the Eastern Conference for three consecutive seasons, the team might actually benefit by playing the underdog role like they did last season when most counted them out at the beginning of each postseason series.

The Rematch: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs 2.0

This time last year, the Maple Leafs finished second in the Atlantic Division and the Lightning were right behind them as the third-seeded team in the division. Tampa was the underdog going into the postseason. At the end of the 2022-23 regular season, they find themselves again trailing their northern foes in the standings. They lost two of the three regular-season games, of which two were decided by one goal, and scored eight goals vs. Toronto’s 11. The two teams have known for months that they would playing in the much-anticipated rematch.

During their seven-game, first-round series last season, the contest was close. The Maple Leafs barely won the goal differential, 24 to 23 and their power play was kept to only 14.3 percent. The Lightning won two road games, which included Nick Paul’s two Game 7 goals that sent their fans home again extremely disappointed. In that series, they were close to elimination and came back to win two consecutive games that no one thought they could pull off.

“In the Toronto series when we were down, 3-2 and there were no tomorrows,” Cooper said, “they gave us two more months of tomorrows.” (from ‘A Three-Peat in Sight, Tampa Bay May Face Its Toughest Test Yet,’ New York Times, June 15, 2022)

Why the Maple Leafs Are Favored to Win Series

The Maple Leafs are the clear favorite to win the 2023 first-round series. What has increased the Maple Leafs’ chances to win the series are the players that general manager (GM) Kyle Dubas brought in at the trade deadline. With the addition of three solid centermen in Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari and Sam Lafferty, they also beefed up their blue line by adding Jake McCabe, Erik Gustafsson and former Lightning Luke Schenn. They have been built to be favored in the playoffs.