July 1 is often when an NHL general manager makes moves that they will regret later, and frequently, they spend years trying to correct them. This summer is no different, as teams will overpay many unrestricted free agents. There is perhaps no better recent example of this than Pittsburgh Penguins GM Kyle Dubas, who has done tremendous work the past two years but hasn’t been able to undo the series of poor moves he made on July 1, 2023, when he signed Tristan Jarry, Ryan Graves and Noel Acciari to long-term deals. Signings such as these can alter the direction of a franchise and hitch the team to financial commitments that haunt them long-term. Last summer’s big free-agent winner was the Nashville Predators, but they quickly discovered that winning in July doesn’t always translate to winning during the season.
This is the first year in some time that there has been a significant increase in the salary cap, with agents and UFAs salivating at the potential dollars they can rein in this summer. The days of skilled veterans settling for one-year deals just above league minimum may become a thing of the past, leading to more free agents signing contracts they could never live up to. Let’s look at the players who will likely get overpaid this summer using AFP Analytics’ projections for 2025-26 cap hits based on next year’s $95.5MM upper limit.
In combing through AFP’s work, a number that jumps out is the projection for Vancouver Canucks forward Brock Boeser. AFP is projecting a seven-year deal worth $9.05MM per year for the 28-year-old, which looks pretty optimistic for a player who has topped 30 goals in a season just once and has only topped the 60-point plateau once. Boeser is not a player who can drive a line by himself; he is a shooter and can also go into slumps at 5-on-5. A cap hit north of $9MM for Boeser would almost certainly become a future buyout like Jeff Skinner’s contract was. Boeser may not get $9MM per, but teams are always in search of scoring, and someone will step up and overpay for his services.
No disrespect to Sam Bennett; he is a terrific player who has become an essential piece of a perennial Stanley Cup contender. But he will likely be overpaid this summer if he decides to leave the Florida Panthers. AFP’s projection is a six-year deal for $6.3MM per season, which seems a little light for Bennett unless he signs in a state with a more favorable income tax structure, such as Florida. Even at that projection, Bennett…
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