A little while ago, we wrote that we didn’t think that the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ Auston Matthews and William Nylander should play on the same line now that Mitch Marner has been traded. Our reasoning seemed straightforward: both Matthews and Nylander are “shoot-first” guys. Why stack two natural goal scorers together when you could spread the offence around?
We backed up our point by noting that over the last two seasons, Matthews led the team with 142 goals while Nylander was second with 125. That looked like enough evidence to us.
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But then one of our regular contributors, Windshear, pushed back. He suggested that our take on Nylander wasn’t quite right. Sure, Nylander scored 45 goals last season, but Windshear reminded us that in each of the previous four seasons, Nylander had more assists than goals. That raised a fair question: Do we have Nylander pegged wrong?
Looking Closer at the Numbers
Upon further investigation, Windshear was absolutely right. In fact, if you look at Nylander’s career totals, the evidence leans more toward playmaker than pure shooter. In the regular season, Nylander has 612 career points: 262 goals (43%) and 350 assists (57%). In the playoffs, his ratio is almost the same: 32 goals (45%) and 39 assists (55%) in 67 games.
So while the highlight reels often show Nylander’s quick release, the bigger body of work suggests he’s every bit as much a setup guy.
The Shooting Story for Nylander
Another piece of the puzzle is how often Nylander shoots the puck. Early in his career, he averaged just over nine shots per 60 minutes. From 2021 through 2023, that number jumped to 11.2 shots per 60. That increase lines up with his climb into the upper tier of NHL scoring.
But here’s the kicker: last season, when he scored a career-high 45 goals, his shot rate actually dropped back down to 9.49 per 60. The difference? His shooting percentage skyrocketed to 17.8%, well above the 12.7–13.7% range he had posted in the four years preceding it.
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In other words, he wasn’t firing the puck more than usual—he was finishing at a much higher rate. That tells us last season’s goal total was less about him becoming more selfish with the puck and more about his efficiency when he did…
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