The 2024-25 NHL season was one filled with surprises. We saw more than a few in the standings, especially among some teams that qualified for the playoffs. But not all teams that shot up in the standings may be able to repeat their success in 2025-26. Here are five teams that could regress next season.
Washington Capitals
The Capitals were the biggest surprise of the 2024-25 season, as they finished with 111 points, capturing the Metropolitan Division crown by a comfortable margin over the Carolina Hurricanes. I’m sure some of their success had to do with Alex Ovechkin’s chase for Wayne Gretzky’s goals record, but the Capitals may not be as fortunate next season.
It’s not that I don’t think they’ll be a playoff team. They should be, especially in a division as weak as the Metropolitan, but they had more than a few players have career seasons, and perhaps unsustainably so. You need to look no further than some individual shooting percentages:
- Aliaksei Protas: 21.1 percent
- Tom Wilson: 19.9 percent
- Dylan Strome: 19.5 percent
- Alex Ovechkin: 18.6 percent
- Jakob Chychrun: 11.7 percent
For context’s sake, let’s compare those to their career averages:
- Protas: 11.6 percent
- Wilson: 12.8 percent
- Strome: 15.4 percent
- Ovechkin: 13.1 percent
- Chychrun: 7.4 percent
As you can see, the Capitals had plenty of outliers when it comes to shooting the puck, most notably Protas and Wilson, who shot well above their career averages. Protas is the biggest outlier of them all, as he had 13 combined goals in his three prior seasons. I doubt he’ll regress that hard, but I wouldn’t bet on him shooting 21 percent and scoring 30 goals again. The same is true for Wilson.
Not only was a shooting bender the reason the Capitals rocketed to the top of the Metro, but Logan Thompson saved a career-high 26 goals above expected. He’s always been a reliable above-average netminder, but I wouldn’t count on him going 31-6-6 and saving 26 goals above expected again.
Vegas seems to have taken note, as sportsbooks have the Capitals’ over/under at 95.5 points for next season. Matching that shouldn’t keep them out of the playoffs, but it’s unlikely they dominate the Metro as they did in 2024-25.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets, much like the Capitals, were the biggest surprise of their respective conference. They got off a scorching hot start and never looked back, winning 56 games and finishing with 116…
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