Arbitration Breakdown: Nicholas Robertson

Every player to file for arbitration so far this offseason has avoided a hearing, and only one case even got remotely close. That likely won’t be the case for the Maple Leafs and Nicholas Robertson, who have until their hearing starts on Sunday to settle before an arbitrator’s award will decide their fate.

Filings

Team: $1.2MM
Player: $2.25MM
Midpoint: $1.725MM

(via Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet)

The Numbers

Nothing much really changed last season for Robertson. After a trade request last summer didn’t come to fruition, he ended up inking a one-year, $875K deal to return to Toronto in hopes of landing a more consistent role in their top-nine forward group. That didn’t happen. While he did make a career-high 69 appearances, the 23-year-old’s usage remained conservative at 12 minutes per game, and his point pace dropped off from his 2023-24 performance. He finished the year with 15 goals – seventh on the team – but only seven assists for 22 points, a rate of 0.32 per game after he recorded 0.48 per game the year before in lesser minutes.

The younger brother of Stars centerpiece Jason Robertson has always been viewed as one of the higher-ceiling young offensive options in Toronto’s system. He’s shown it in flashes, but it’s clear at this stage he needs a longer leash and more minutes to truly be effective without many other elements to his game (although he did manage a career-high 79 hits last year).

Whether he’ll receive that in Toronto remains to be seen. In any event, the Leafs’ seven-figure filing is significantly higher than his $775K cap hit from 2024-25, so it’s clear they’re anticipating on him playing a slightly more regular role in 2025-26 and will presumably count on him for more depth scoring in the wake of Mitch Marner’s departure. But for a player with just over 150 career appearances, it’s going to be a tad difficult to project how a potential hearing may shake out.

2024-25 Stats: 69 GP, 15-7–22, -1 rating, 16 PIMs, 112 shots, 12:00 ATOI
Career Stats: 156 GP, 32-24–56, +2 rating, 24 PIMs, 258 shots, 11:28 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.  Career stats listed are as of the time of…