Will The Penguins Be Able To Trade Erik Karlsson?

Before the offseason began, it became clear that the Penguins were uniquely positioned as one of the league’s true few sellers who had no plans of contending for a playoff spot in 2026. Even with an understaffed roster, particularly on the blue line, they do still have some valuable trade chips to leverage in order to recoup additional future assets for their ongoing rebuild while also giving them a greater chance at a high-end pick in a stacked 2026 draft class.

While wingers Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust will likely yield the most calls and have rather movable contracts, defenseman Erik Karlsson has also been on the shopping block since last season’s trade deadline. Aside from the declining veteran’s $10MM cap hit being virtually immovable without at least an additional 20% worth of retention, he has a no-movement clause through the remainder of his deal, which expires following the 2026-27 season.

Moving him, even with retention, is a sensible goal for the Penguins if they can yield a significant return. The 35-year-old obviously doesn’t fit into their long-term plans, and shedding some of his salary opens up more flexibility to take on more shorter-term undesirable contracts in the near future in exchange for additional futures, similar to their pickup of Matt Dumba from the Stars earlier this month.

That no-movement clause, which Karlsson waived to facilitate a trade to Pittsburgh from San Jose following his Norris-winning campaign in 2023, makes generating that significant return a difficult feat. He’s produced at a decent 55-point pace over his two seasons with the Pens and hasn’t missed a game since his acquisition, but a look under the hood reveals declining possession impacts to pair with his already solidified one-dimensional reputation as an offensive-minded rearguard.

While he usually helps his team generate significantly more shot attempts to help offset those poor defensive impacts, his +2.0% relative Corsi at even strength last year was among the worst of his career, as was his 48.4 xGF%. Entering his age-35 season, it’s not exactly as if there’s hope for a rebound there unless he’s deployed in an extremely insulated possession system.

Even if the Penguins are able to make Karlsson a $7MM-$8MM player for the next two seasons, the Venn diagram of teams that can afford him and those he’d be willing to waive his NMC for isn’t favorable. He’s willing to move but is only considering waiving his clause for a…