There are late-round gems in every NHL draft class that go on to have impactful careers. With the increase in scouting coverage and analytics, teams do a better job of drafting those players earlier, but inevitably, a few of these late-round diamonds in the rough emerge.
Gone are the days of getting Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Lundqvist or Brett Hull in the late rounds. However, smaller players who possess skill seem to be drafted much later. The reigning Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson is hardly a late-round pick — he went 62nd overall in 2022 — but he should’ve been selected a lot earlier.
Some recent late-round gems include Troy Terry (No. 148 in 2015), Andrew Mangiapane (No. 166, 2015), Jesper Bratt (No. 162, 2016), Brandon Hagel (No. 159, 2016) and Mark Stone (No. 178, 2010). There were concerns about all of them in the draft process, whether it was size, skating or questions about the translatability of their game to the NHL. But each has far exceeded their draft expectations and gone on to represent their country on the international stage. Your draft slot does not make or break you. The earlier picks will get more chances while the later picks have to earn their looks, but there is a pathway to success.
The common denominator in a late-round pick’s success is that they are elite in at least one category; or as one NHL executive put it, “they possess a separating skill that differentiates them from others.”
This year, there are a few players who may end up as the diamonds in the rough. Generally speaking, a player drafted after the third round has a less than 3% chance of playing 200 games in the NHL, which means it is likely that only four or five players drafted after pick No. 96 will make it. There is a less than 1.5% chance of that player becoming an impact player, goaltenders not included. The darts at the board are worth throwing, but a few players in this class have separating skills that may give them a better chance.
Cameron Schmidt, RW, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
While Schmidt is rated much higher in public rankings — and remained a first-rounder in those rankings for the majority of the season — NHL…
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