IIHF – Bronze Medal Game preview

Well, anyone who had Sweden playing Denmark for bronze three weeks ago probably has a very long nose right about now. Who knew? But we play the games for a reason, and here we are. 

The only remotely close connection between these two teams in elimination games can be found at the 2010 IIHF WM. That year, Sweden beat the Danes 4-2 in the quarter-finals. Cool fact. The only player on either team in that game who is here in Stockholm is goalie Jacob Markstrom (although he didn’t play in the game).

That being said, and despite Denmark’s stunning win over Canada a few days ago, Sweden has to be considered the overwhelming favourites for third place. But you don’t win a bronze medal on paper; you have to play the game.

The Swedes are 8-3 in bronze games since the IIHF introduced the playoff format in 1992, while the Daves are 0-0. That’s right. This is numero uno for them. As well, Sweden played the early game yesterday, so they have a full day between games while the Danes got off the ice last night about 9pm and will be back on the ice just 18 hours later. Given that both teams are playing three games in four days, this difference of a few hours might be a factor. 

The Swedes in general have lamented their poor first periods this tournament. A slow start quite possibly cost them a win yesterday against the United States, and in four out of nine games they have failed to score a goal in the opening 20 minutes. 

“The games we score first, we’ve been on our toes and taken charge of the game,” noted Mikael Backlund after yesterday’s loss. “Against Canada and again tonight, we didn’t score first. When we don’t, we’re on our heels and we have to chase. When you score the first goal, you create a lot of momentum.”

The rosters clearly show Sweden has the advantage. They have a team top to bottom of mostly NHLers (22, to be exact) while the Danes have just two—Nikolaj Ehlers and Jonas Rondbjerg. Goals for and against also favour Tre Kronor, who have scored 35 goals and allowed only 16. Denmark’s numbers are 27 for and 32 against.

But beyond that, the numbers just don’t favour the Danes. Yes, they have more power-play goals than Sweden, 8-6, but Sweden has allowed only one power-play goal against Denmark’s six. And, Sweden is 16th in penalties taken, so if Denmark will win, it likely won’t be because of special teams. But if they lose, it might well be the case. They have incurred a whopping 39 minors, most in the…