Winnipeg Jets Have the NHL’s Best Record, But Are They the Best Team? – The Hockey Writers –

So, about those Winnipeg Jets? If you had them 14-1-0 after their first 15 games, good on you, because I don’t think anyone expected them to be the NHL’s best team after a month or so of action, but here we are. The question is, are the Jets as good as their record indicates?

Jets’ 5-on-5 Numbers Raise Some Concerns

The Jets had plenty of turnover from last season’s roster. Gone are Tyler Toffoli, Sean Monahan, Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt, the latter of who are with the New Jersey Devils and Florida Panthers. Replacing Dillon and Schmidt are Dylan Samberg and Logan Stanley, who played for the Jets last season but in lesser roles.

Samberg has seen the biggest bump in ice time, going from a third-pair role and averaging 15 minutes per game to the second pair and just a little over 20 minutes. Because of that, one would have thought the Jets would have taken a step back defensively, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.

However, there might be some red flags. The Jets are allowing 2.56 expected goals per 60 minutes, the 21st-ranked rate in the NHL. Fortunately for them, having a goaltender as great as Connor Hellebuyck will help cover up for a defense that might not look as good as it seems. The Jets have a five-on-five save percentage of .933, largely due to Hellebuyck, who has a .936 SV% at five-on-five.

Related: 5 Ridiculous Stats From Jets’ Record-Setting 14-1-0 Start

So what about the Jets’ five-on-five offense? Have they missed Toffoli and Monahan? It’s a bit complicated. The Jets are creating 2.43 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five, the 18th-ranked rate, but their five-on-five shooting percentage isn’t unsustainably high. In fact, it’s where you want to be (9.26 percent) as a team.

Where the Jets are lighting the lamp at will is on the power play. They’re converting on 41.9 percent of their man advantages, an unsustainably high rate. Even the best power plays usually finish the season around 28-30 percent, so that’s almost guaranteed to regress.

The Jets are doing a good job creating quality chances on the power play, and while they haven’t missed Toffoli and Monahan yet, they won’t shoot 27 percent on the man advantage forever. Their five-on-five expected goals share (xG%) of 48.61 percent ranks 22nd in the NHL, so they’ll need to improve at five-on-five to help stave off the regression coming on the man advantage.

Hellebuyck Is Elite, and Top 6 Has Finishing…