Five games are a small sample size to panic over, but it is large enough to see a disturbing pattern emerge of a team being outplayed at even strength. It’s one issue that Montreal Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis will need to fix.
Related: Canadiens Defenders Need to Adjust to the System
As a collective, the top-six forward group has underperformed what was expected from them, leading to a 2-3-1 record so far this season. Changes will need to be made if they want a better chance to win.
The Canadiens’ Top Line
The hope was that the Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky line could be relied on to play against the opposition’s top line and still produce a net gain offensively. Six goals in six games for Montreal’s best sniper, Caufield, who is second in the NHL in goals is good news, but that’s about it.
The top line was the most used at 5-on-5 against the New York Islanders with just over 12 minutes of ice time as a unit, and it did score a goal at even strength. However, against an Islanders team that struggles to score, Suzuki’s line was out-shot, holding a woeful Corsi For percentage (CF%) of 40.9%, and worse yet, were out-chanced as well, finishing with an expected goals for percentage (xGF%) of 35.8%.
This isn’t just one bad game. Over the first five games played in 2024-25, Suzuki’s line has been outplayed. They hold very unflattering numbers, being out-shot with a CF% of 35.4 and out-chanced with a pitiful xGF% of 30.8. The issue doesn’t seem to be Slafkovsky, whose possession stats jump dramatically upwards when separated from that line with a 47 CF% and a 76.1 xGF%. So, this begs the question, what is the issue?
Issues Facing the Canadiens
Last season at 5-on-5, the Suzuki line was the one bright spot offensively. They were a net positive offensively as their possession stats were above the 50% mark with a 50.8 CF% and a 51.7 xGF%. This season’s possession stats are far too low. Yet somehow, all three players are producing at or just slightly above a point-per-game pace.
But the fact they are losing the possession battle is a concern. As a team, Montreal has been unable to establish itself in the offensive zone for any real length of time consistently. Their forecheck is not effective and their top offensive chances at 5-on-5 tend to come off of the rush and not from a sustained cycle. The games…
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