When the Pittsburgh Penguins traded goal-scoring winger Jake Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes last spring, it had potentially dealt a devastating blow to a team that already had trouble finding the back of the net.
But for the new crop of Penguins’ top-six forwards, that isn’t necessarily the case.
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As it stands now, the Penguins’ top-six figures to have some combination of Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin, Michael Bunting, Drew O’Connor, and – possibly – a rookie in Rutger McGroarty. Five of those players have multiple 20-goal seasons under their belt, with Crosby (16) and Malkin (15) leading the way.
What is the likelihood that each of these players scores 20? And will there be anyone else that comes close?
Sidney Crosby
Likelihood to score 20+: Almost guaranteed. Barring health, there is no reason to suggest that Sidney Crosby will not be a 20-goal scorer for the 17th time in his NHL career.
Over the past three seasons, Crosby has registered 31, 33, and 42 goals, and the two seasons prior were shortened due to the Covid-19 lockdown. The last time – and the only other time – that Crosby registered three consecutive seasons of 30 or more goals was 2008-11 during the prime of his career.
So there is literally no reason to suggest that he’ll all of a sudden dip below 20 goals. This one is nearly a given, again, barring health.
Evgeni Malkin
Likelihood to score 20+: Very high. Like Crosby, Malkin’s goal fortunes will vbe very health-dependent. But assuming he stays healthy, it is highly unlikely that Malkin won’t score at least 20 goals.
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Over the past two seasons, he has registered 27 goals in each, which is his highest mark since 2017-18 (when he scored 42). Malkin dealt with generally unproductive and inconsistent linemates last season, but he found chemistry with Bunting and Rakell after Bunting was acquired as part of the Guentzel trade at the deadline.
Assuming that line stays healthy and intact, Malkin should hit 20 fairly easily.
Bryan Rust
Likelihood to score 20+: High. Rust has posted five consecutive seasons of 20 or more goals, with his career-high of 28 coming last season. Injuries are the biggest concern for Rust, who has never played a full 82-game season and has only played more than 70 games twice over the course of…