Likeliest Canadiens Candidates to Regress in 2024-25 – The Hockey Writers – Montreal Canadiens

As a rebuilding team rife with young talent, the Canadiens are progressing almost as a collective unit. Poised to improve in terms of points for the third straight season, the Habs may very well still miss the playoffs, but they’re going to realistically be a much better team as most of their players are projected to as well.

Related: Canadiens Realistically on the Rise in Atlantic Division in 2024-25

Of course, there are always exceptions. Some players who had decent seasons in 2023-24 probably won’t be able to build on that success. That’s just cold, hard logic. Here are the likeliest Canadiens candidates to regress in 2024-25:

5. Rafael Harvey-Pinard

In Rafael Harvey-Pinard’s defense, he gets ranked here as a direct result of an offseason injury. Normally, he wouldn’t make the cut, even if only by virtue of the underwhelming 10 points he scored in 45 games last season, albeit buried at the bottom of the lineup for large portions of it. It would be hard for him to not put up more simply based on the two goals he scored and his 7.7% shooting percentage (S%; after hitting 24.1% in 2022-23).

Now that Harvey-Pinard is out four months, though? This isn’t a reflection of his capability, just circumstances, of which he could become a victim. As his future with the organization had been hanging by a thread (looking at Jesse Ylonen, who didn’t even get qualified after scoring four goals), he’s at risk of losing his spot in the lineup altogether.

4. Brendan Gallagher

In sharp contrast, with a no-movement clause in his back pocket, Brendan Gallagher isn’t going anywhere. Part of the reason he has arguably the worst Canadiens contract heading into 2024-25 is because of it (and his $6.5 million hit). However, it’s because his 31-point season (77 games) in 2023-24 is kind of a best-case scenario moving forward.

Gallagher has only 31 goals over the last three seasons (170 games). He used to be good for that amount over a complete campaign. Based on the injuries he’s accumulated, it would almost be a miracle were he to play another, second straight complete season (with the five games he missed coming as a result of a suspension).

However, to his credit, Gallagher did just score a respectable 16 goals. In fact, finding chemistry with Joel Armia and Alex Newhook, he scored five goals and 10 points in his last eight games,…