Now that the 2023-24 season is over, with the Detroit Red Wings narrowly missing out on a playoff berth, and the team’s locker room has been cleared out for the offseason, it’s time to look forward The offseason is upon us once more, and the first event is just weeks away. The NHL Draft Lottery.
Last year, I went through the past decade of draft lotteries and found that the Red Wings had the worst lottery luck over that period, dropping more spots than any other team that never won a lottery spot. That is unlikely to change this year, though it would be oddly fitting for Detroit to finally win a draft lottery while the rules dictate they still wouldn’t get the first overall pick.
Related: 2024 NHL Mock Draft 1.0
Let’s take a look at Detroit’s lottery odds, take a refresher on the NHL’s new draft lottery rules, and the check out the value of their most likely draft slot!
Worst Lottery Odds Yet
The Red Wings have the second worst lottery odds in the league, with just a 1.1% chance of winning. That leaves a 97.9% chance of staying put at 15th overall and a 1.1% chance of the St. Louis Blues winning (16th best odds) and bumping Detroit down to 16th overall (odds via. Tankathon). You read that right, Detroit has the same odds of rising in the lottery as they do of sliding.
After having the fourth best odds in 2019, the top odds in 2020, and the sixth best in 2021 (among other top-10 lottery odds), Detroit has failed to win a draft lottery. Now that they’ve begun to dig their way out of that rut without lottery luck, their odds are extremely low of winning a lottery.
Draft Lottery Structure
Under the NHL’s current draft lottery rules, teams can only improve their draft pick by a maximum of 10 spots in the draft order with a lottery win, meaning Detroit has no chance at a top-three pick this year. Fifth overall is on the table though, if the 1.1% chance comes through and Detroit’s ping-pong ball wins.
Another recently added wrinkle to the rules states that each team can only win the draft lottery a maximum of two times in a five-year span, meaning that teams who have won the lottery in the past two drafts only have one more win available to them before being exempt from the draft lottery.
This is a new enough rule that it hasn’t been fully tested in the NHL yet, though a lottery win for the Montreal Canadiens…
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