Pairwise Chaos May Lie Ahead This Weekend, Unless Committee Gets Creative
by Adam Wodon/Managing Editor (@CHN_AdamWodon)
So … the Committee is going to have to put on the big boy pants this year.
Anyone who’s been following the Pairwise in recent weeks, and who understands how the process typically works, could forsee the dilemmas on the horizon. Well, now that horizon is this weekend.
That said, I believe the Committee will ultimately be able to wiggle out of this without needing to be as creative as I wish.
If you’ve been following the recent debate about on-campus Regionals, and the three recent articles I wrote about it (in particular, the one suggesting solutions) — not to mention 20 years worth of articles on this topic — I’ve long wished for the Committee to get more creative when it comes to seeding, in order to wiggle out of jams. It has never taken me up on that suggestion.
This might be the year why they really, really, really need to start taking this suggestion, to avoid some unfair situations.
However, there may be a logistical “out.”
* * *
As I say every year, projecting a bracket right now based on today’s Pairwise, is a waste of time. It will be change by the time decisions need to be made.
We could try to project what the bracket will look like, but that’s also difficult, of course.
So, instead I’ll focus on the two biggest potential nightmare scenarios:
1. Two NCHC teams at 3/4 overall, and two NCHC teams at 13/14 overall
2. UMass as a 4 seed (13/14th overall), and an NCHC team as a 4 seed (13/14).
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The NCHC Team Problem
As problems go, this is bad, but I think this is less likely to occur than the other one. But best we all be prepared.
One of the sacrosanct rules the Committee goes by is avoiding first-round games against teams from the same conference.
Also typically, because there is usually a wide disparity between the No. 16 overall seed and the next team down, the Committee will try to “protect the 1” by assuring the top overall seed plays the worst team in the Tournament.
This year, those issues could be at direct odds with each other. If Denver/North Dakota finish some combo of 3/4 (likely) and, say, Western Michigan and Colorado College are 13/14, that would…
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