Thursday night’s Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 comeback victory over the Calgary Flames was almost a complete reversal of their previous four games when they had jumped out to an early lead but couldn’t hold on. Last night, the Flames came out hot in the first period, but the Maple Leafs hung in there. Scoring a late-period goal, they took over the game, scored four in a row, and hung on for dear life.
With the Flames up 2-0 late in the first, captain Mikael Backlund rang a puck off the post on a breakaway chance that could have pushed their lead to 3-0. After that, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner turned it on. Matthews jumped on a mistake by Flames defenseman Nick DeSimone to score and that shifted the momentum in Toronto’s favor.
Matthews scored two more, with Marner adding his 19th goal on a 4-on-3 power play. Nylander had a couple of helpers, and the Maple Leafs held on. Give credit to Flames goalie Dan Vladar who kept his team in the game when the Maple Leafs put the pressure on, while Maple Leafs goalie Martin Jones made 24 saves for the win.
Item One: The Importance of Four Goals
Yesterday, in my News and Rumors post, I shared my regular co-writer, Stan Smith’s, notes on the significance of scoring four goals in NHL games. Last night was a perfect example. Stan’s number crunching has revealed that scoring more than three goals significantly tips the scales in favour of winning, with teams hitting the four or more goals mark enjoying an 80% or higher success rate. Contrastingly, teams scoring two or fewer goals face poorer odds of 25% or lower.
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The Maple Leafs had been struggling to score, averaging 2.5 goals per game in their four outings before the Flames game. Last night’s game supported Stan’s statistics; the Maple Leafs scored four goals; and, despite facing numerous challenges, they emerged victorious. This victory offered a tangible example of the statistical principles highlighted in his analysis.
Item Two: Auston Matthews Contributed to the Win
As noted, Matthews’ hat trick was the key to the team’s win on Thursday night. Capitalizing after Backlund was unable to extend his team’s lead, he scored a key momentum-shifting goal. He then took over the second period and scored the game-tying goal (with an assist from Nylander).
Later in the second period, Matthews played a key…
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